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IMA Journal of Management Mathematics Advance Access originally published online on December 6, 2007
IMA Journal of Management Mathematics 2008 19(2):175-192; doi:10.1093/imaman/dpm034
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© The authors 2007. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications. All rights reserved.

Demand forecasting adjustments for service-level achievement

Aris A. Syntetos{dagger}

Centre for Operational Research and Applied Statistics, Salford Business School, University of Salford, Salford, UK

John E. Boylan

School of Business and Management, Buckinghamshire New University, Bucks, UK

{dagger} Email: a.syntetos{at}salford.ac.uk

Received on 25 January 2007. Accepted on 3 October 2007.

Demand forecasting and stock control are traditionally examined as independent of each other. Even though this weakness has been highlighted in the academic literature, little empirical work has been conducted on forecasting adjustments addressing the interaction between forecasting and stock control. In this paper, the relevant literature is critically reviewed. Subsequently, the empirical performance of some modifications and adjustments, on slow-moving items, is examined in detail. The data set consists of the individual demand histories of 753 intermittent line items from the Royal Air Force (UK). Overall, the results indicate that there is a scope for improving the performance of parametric stock control systems, and adjustments are indeed required in order to account for the interaction between forecasting and stock control.

Keywords: customer service level; intermittent demand; forecasting; stock control


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