IMA Journal of Management Mathematics Advance Access originally published online on April 26, 2007
IMA Journal of Management Mathematics 2007 18(4):353-369; doi:10.1093/imaman/dpm019
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Gaussian factor models—futures and forward prices

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Concordia University, 1455 boulevard de Maisonneuve Ouest, Montréal, Québec, Canada H3G 1M8
Email: hyndman{at}mathstat.concordia.ca
Received on 31 July 2006. Accepted on 19 March 2007.
We completely characterize the futures price and forward price of a risky asset (commodity) paying a stochastic dividend yield (convenience yield). The asset (commodity) price is modelled as an exponential affine function of a Gaussian factors process, while the interest rate and dividend yield are affine functions of the factors process. The characterization we provide is based on the method of stochastic flows. We believe this method leads to simpler and more clear-cut derivations of the futures price and forward price formulae than alternative methods. Hedging a long-term forward contract with shorter term futures contracts and bonds is also examined.
Keywords: futures price; forward price; stochastic flows; factor models; Gaussian state variables